Brent crude is poised to trade below $100 a barrel for the first time in over two years for 2013, oil will average $97 next year, according to the median of 30 forecasts compiled by WorldWatch, compared with about $111.68 a barrel so far in 2012.
Risks are skewed to the upside, related to still-high risks of escalation or confrontation over Iran and deterioration in Syria, the biggest possible surprise for markets could be stronger-than-expected oil-demand growth.
If prices rise they will pose a barrier to a recovery in the global economy amid Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, U.S. budget disputes and signs of slowing growth in Asia. Record revenue for oil producers helped ensure supply stability this year, encouraging Saudi Arabia to pump at its highest rate in three decades, while financing shale projects in the U.S. that fostered the nation’s biggest production increase in 50 years.
Global oil demand will not expand next year from the 89.5 million barrels a day (2012 figures), versus growth of 0.9 percent in 2012.
OPEC decided on Dec. 12 to leave its official production target unchanged. The group is expected to earn more than $1 trillion in export revenue this year, according to the U.S. Energy Department.
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