Oil shale crude

In the middle of all this market crises..some "Did you know"..

Oil shale crude is actually composed of kerogen. It is a waxy organic substance that was formed from algae, plants, vegetation, and all forms of animal life. Through millions of years, covered in layers of sediment, and subjected to very high pressures a transformation occurred resulting into a form of non-conventional crude oil embedded in layers of sediment. When subjected to very high temperatures it converts into various liquid and gas hydrocarbons. Kerogen can be refined like regular high quality light crude oil.



As oil prices continue falling despite OPEC’s renewed efforts to shore up world crude markets, Wall Street banks have more bad news for the producer group: the outlook for next year isn’t great either.
Oil futures have lost 8 percent since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on May 25 to keep output constrained through the first quarter of 2018 in a bid to clear a global glut. While Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects their strategy to ultimately succeed, they warn the surplus may re-appear once the curbs end. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say the group will have little choice but to drop the reduced production.
Resurgent supplies from U.S. shale drillers and fading growth in fuel demand mean that world oil markets will face another overhang next year, the banks predict. That means Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two biggest producers in the 24-nation coalition, will have to control crude prices around $42 a barrel.With U.S. production growing strongly, there doesn’t seem to be much room for OPEC to cut production in 2018.
The surplus will continue as U.S. shale drillers boost production with surprising speed. American oil explorers, having learned to operate more efficiently during a two-year market slump, have restored almost all the output lost during the downturn. As a result, the market may be unable to absorb the return of production halted by OPEC and its partners when their pact ends in April.Still, even if a surplus re-emerges in 2018, OPEC’s current efforts to deplete stockpiles will make their task of managing it easier, according to Citigroup Inc.
Those increases in inventories may nonetheless prove substantial enough to prevent prices gaining, said David Martin, an analyst at JPMorgan, who slashed his 2018 forecast for Brent crude by $10 a barrel to $42 on May 25. Brent traded near $49 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London on Friday.

OPEC is shackled to its deal for a long time.


The crude scheme

Crude producers agreed they’re cutting oil production!!!

This is speculation, most crude producers cannot afford to reduce production, we have the example of Venezuela!!

This measure is a way to inflate crude prices, however the cause/effect will be seen in the next months as other alternative means of energy are now in an advanced stage of development, let’s not forget that US elect President Trump stated that one of the Nations priorities is energy that includes shale oil.
Futures rose as much as 2.8 percent after adding 45 percent last year, the biggest annual gain since 2009. Officials from Oman and Kuwait told local media they’re cutting oil production in January, fulfilling pledges that they and 22 other producers made on Dec. 10.
Oil climbed for the first time in three years in 2016 as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 other nations agreed to cut output starting Jan. 1 in an effort to reduce bloated global inventories. Prices, which eased in late December, are surpassing the peaks reached just after the deal was finalized, as Kuwait and Oman give the first signs the curbs are being implemented.

OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day, Al-Anba newspaper reported, citing Kuwait Oil Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamal Jaafer. Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million, the Oil Ministry’s Director of Marketing Ali Al-Riyami said on Oman TV.

OPEC nations and non-members including Russia and Mexico have agreed to trim output by about 1.8 million barrels a day. Iraq will start implementing cuts by reducing heavy and medium grades, the nation’s Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi told Kuwaiti daily al-Jarida.
A big factor to watch over the coming months will be the response of shale oil to the supply cuts. That policy crushed crude prices and resulted in the shakeout of high-cost producers. For one, the U.S. shale industry sees a strong come back, now analysts expect after Trump takes office the US will continue with more shale production, the U.S. is producing about 700,000 barrels a day less than it was a year ago.
Drillers in the U.S. increased the rig count by two to 525 last week, the highest level since last January, according to data from WorldWatch.
Saudi Arabia has lost market control to Iran, if this strategy continues other Opec and non.Opec members will lose economic independence and face serious economic times.



The catastrophe looming for OPEC is the deal to cut production..

OPEC and Russia will meet in Doha on Thursday for another round of talks without ministers from Iran and Iraq, the two countries that pose the biggest obstacle to a deal to cut production.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries want to reach an agreement by the group’s Nov. 30 meeting in Vienna, Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said in an interview in Marrakech, Morocco on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran remain at odds over how to share output cuts, said an OPEC delegate, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.
According to World Watch managing director if the agreement goes ahead then Saudi Arabia will lose market share to Iran and possibly also to Iraq, there will be a shift in regional influence in favor of Iran…

The latest round of diplomacy reflects OPEC’s struggle to finalize the deal reached in Algiers on Sept. 28, which would end a two-year policy of pumping without limits. More than 18 hours of talks last month in Vienna failed to overcome internal disagreements, which in turn prevented a wider pact with non-OPEC producers. Without an accord, the International Energy Agency predicted a fourth consecutive year of oversupply in 2017.

Russia will hold informal consultations with representatives of some OPEC countries at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Doha on Nov. 17-18, the Energy Ministry in Moscow said in a statement Tuesday. Khalid Al-Falih, the minister of energy and industry for Saudi Arabia, which is not a member of the gas group, will join the talks, said an OPEC delegate who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

 Neither Iran nor Iraq will send oil ministers to Doha. Hamed Al-Zobaie, Iraq’s deputy minister for natural gas affairs, will represent the country, Oil Ministry Spokesman Asim Jihad said by phone. Iran’s OPEC Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili and National Representative Behrooz Baikalizadeh will attend the meeting, said an Oil Ministry official.

Iraq has sought an exemption from joining any production cuts, arguing that its fight against Islamic State justifies special treatment. Iran has insisted it won’t accept any limits on its production until it has returned to the pre-sanctions level of about 4 million barrels a day.

 The talks in the Qatari capital run alongside behind-the-scenes diplomacy, including an unannounced meeting in recent days in London between Barkindo and Al-Falih. After traveling to Venezuela to meet with President Nicolas Maduro, OPEC’s top official will also visit Ecuador and Iran, two people familiar with the matter said Tuesday.

Saudi Requirements

OPEC pledged in Algiers to bring its production down to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels a day, which compares with the group’s own output estimate of 33.6 million last month. The group is also seeking cooperation from Russia and other producers outside the group, although so far none have committed to curbing output.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de-facto leader, is ready to cut production, but only if the effort is built around four pillars, said one delegate. All members must agree to collective action, pledge to share the burden of cuts equitably, and do so in a way that is transparent and has credibility with the market. The latter can be achieved by using OPEC estimates of how much each member pumps, rather than relying on the countries’ own figures, the delegate said.
In practice, that means Saudi Arabia still thinks Iraq needs to cut output and Iran has to freeze production around current levels, Neither country has so far agreed to do that. For both countries this will imply a revenue loss that will cause a severe blow to both economies.

Three countries -- Libya, Nigeria and Iran -- have been granted “special considerations” to implement the Algiers accord,. Iraq is not among these members, he said.

In Libya and Nigeria, production is still recovering after a spate of violence and militant attacks targeted oil infrastructure. Iran has insisted it won’t accept any limits on its production until it has returned to the pre-sanctions level of about 4 million barrels a day.

Iran should not accept present cuts as the sanctions might return, the reason…Trump is the elected US President and has stated that the agreements with Iran will be Re-viewed as soon as he takes office.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran are the largest producers within OPEC, accounting for about 55 percent of the group’s output, according to data compiled by WorldWatch.


“Economical Madness”

The European economy continues to face adverse economic ,however  there is a European nation were these adverse economic conditions are immediately passed to the public in this case motorist .
Portugal continues to have one of the world’s most expensive final consumer prices for fuel (petrol) per liter, the prices are largely inflated by the now parliament elected government, in the last weeks gasoline price have increased by over 14 cents per liter…

The common citizen in Portugal faces once more a huge  increase in taxes as part of the 2016 State budget  presented to the European parliament, these measures imply increase in taxes to the stamp duty, tax on oil products and tobacco tax.    
The political action taken by the new parliament elected government will downgrade the Portuguese economy to new levels of “economical madness”
The public servants will see the working hours reduced to 35h a week!!! While the public sector will continue 40h a week.. Four Public holidays removed during the Troika control have now been reinstated, according to local news tax fraud and evasion by big economical groups will continue.

Discretionary measures in public administrations, the Executive expects an  impact of 0.21% of GDP at the level of indirect taxes, which is about 155 million more that will breach the Treasury in 2016., this shows in fact that no real measures have been taken to reduce the burden the state has on the economy.


Oil prices have not passed their lowest point as shrinking supplies outside OPEC and disruptions inside the group will not the erode global surplus, the International Energy Agency said.

Production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase by 450,000 barrels a day this year, or 70,000 barrels a day more than estimated last month, the agency said. Markets are also being supported by output losses in Iraq and Nigeria, and as Iran restores production to a faster pace than planned following the end of international sanctions.



Crude prices are at a 12 year low, however the consumer price for gasoline for the Portuguese motorist will once  more be inflated next week by another cent per liter. (95 Octane)
WorldWatch chief analyst sees no reason for this latest increase as the Brent crude prices are at minimum 12 year low, the Petrol companies that operate in Portugal continue to have a concentrated increase policy supported by the government as energy prices are heavily taxed, even now with the new parliament elected Socialist/left block and Communist party the situation continues as motorist face constant increases making Portugal have one of the most expensive gasoline prices in Europe.
Brent prices have devalued more than 10%!!!
The average price for Regular 95 Octane is 1,362 euros per liter... The average price for Diesel is 1,088 euros per liter!!!
However if you travel on the more than 3000km of highway that exist in Portugal the consumer price is even higher, 12 cents per liter more expensive , all companies Galp, BP, Repsol and Cepsa practice the same inflated prices.
With these prices consumption will continue to decrease further in 2016!

Oil shale crude In the middle of all this market crises..some "Did you know".. Oil shale crude is actually composed of kero...