17/12/2008

FINAL COUNTDOWN FOR OPEC !!!

Crude oil rose after Saudi Arabia said OPEC will make a record production cut to reverse the five- month, $100 slump in prices.
The group using SPECULATION as a weapon will trim production by 2 million barrels a day at the beginning of next year, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said today. Russia and Azerbaijan said they may join OPEC to reduce supply as recession cuts global energy consumption next year. Commodities also gained as the dollar fell to a 13-year low against the yen.
It certainly will not help, the crude price, OPEC are setting up the risk of over-tightening and quite a significant decline in crude demand in the second half of next year.
Crude oil for January delivery climbed as much as $1.90, to $45.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the first increase in four days. The contract traded at $45.17 at 10:56 a.m. London time. Prices have tumbled 70 percent from a record $147.27 on July 11 as the global economy crisis tips oil consuming countries into recession. Global demand will fall for the first time since 1983 next year, the International Energy Agency said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ rate of compliance with a previous output cut is more than 85 percent, al-Naimi told reporters today in Oran, Algeria, before a ministerial meeting that will decide production quotas.
Russia, the largest non-OPEC producer cut oil production 350,000 barrels a day in November and may trim output further in collaboration with OPEC. Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said at the meeting. Azerbaijan is willing to contribute a supply cut of as much as 300,000 barrels a day, Azeri Energy Minister Natig Aliyev said in Oran. So both these nations will no doubt contribute to a recession in their economies as crude demand will slump further.
OPEC has chossen to place itself in a high risk situation, a attempt to aggressively boost prices, by pursuing a larger-than-expected cut, will backfire by turning sentiment even more pessimistic on the economy.
U.S. and Europe crude-oil and fuel supplies have climbed as the recession crimps demand. Brent crude oil for February settlement rose as much as $2.25, to $48.90 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange, and traded at $48.46 a barrel at 10:57 a.m. local time. The January contract expired yesterday, after declining 4 cents to $44.56 a barrel.

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