13/02/2008

S.A Rand Sinks

Gold is above $900 an ounce and platinum has never been higher, however traders are selling the South African rand faster than any other major currency because President Thabo Mbeki can't keep the lights on.
The rand is down 12 percent this year against the dollar, six times more than the next-worst performer among the world's most widely traded currencies. UBS AG forecasts the sharpest drop in the rand since 2001 this year, and option prices show it has the worst prospects of any currency.
The decline signals the world is losing confidence in South Africa's ability to remedy a power shortage that has disrupted mining of some of the world's most valuable precious-metals deposits just when prices are climbing. Mbeki, the 65-year-old successor to Nelson Mandela who has presided over nine years of economic growth, steps down in 2009, and the man most likely to replace him, Jacob Zuma, is due to stand trial this year on charges from fraud to tax evasion.
These Governers have no idea that the currency is the share price of a country, if anyone wants to know what foreigners are thinking about South Africa at the moment, they need look no further than the rand.


State-owned Eskom Holdings Ltd., which supplies 95 percent of South Africa's power, cut electricity to businesses last month, and most of the country's mines had to shut for five days. Eskom says the government ignored repeated calls to invest in the electricity grid, and it won't be able to increase generation capacity until 2013, in case the gold mines stay shut, the rand is going to fall sharply
Melbourne-based BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, said Eskom told it to cut electricity usage at three aluminum smelters by 10 percent. Johannesburg's AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Africa's biggest gold miner, said last week it will lose 400,000 ounces of production in 2008. The company produced
1.37 million ounces last quarter. Harmony Gold Mining Co., the No. 3 gold producer, lost 300 million rand ($38 million) of production during the five-day shutdown alone.
Sandton City, South Africa's most-expensive shopping center, was left without power for an average of 4 1/2 hours a day between Jan. 13 and Jan. 20. The center in northern Johannesburg is considering buying an 80 million-rand generator.


Precious metals and minerals account for about 60 percent of South Africa's exports, according to the nation's revenue service. It contributes 10 percent of the world's gold and about 80 percent of its platinum. Gold jumped 11 percent this year to above $900 an ounce, after gaining 31 percent in 2007. Platinum surged 24 percent to a record $1,893 an ounce.
It's a tragedy that the country is not benefiting from record commodity prices !!!

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