Moody's Ratings

Ratings agency Moody's once more speculated and downgraded Portugal's government debt on Tuesday, stating that the country will require a second rescue package because it cannot meet its debt reduction targets, however this is based only on Moody's speculative interests.

Moody's Investors Service cut its rating by one notch to Baa2 from Baa1 and said in a report that it was increasingly unlikely that Portugal would be able to borrow money on capital markets in 2013, as planned.

As a result, it said the country would probably require more financial aid on top of the euro 78 billion ($113 billion) bailout it received earlier this year -- with private banks taking some losses.



The Portuguese government and population said in response that it is fully committed to meeting debt reduction targets and economic reforms tied to the bailout.

Portugal has been shut out of bond markets for long-term loans since April, when its government collapsed, heightening investors' concerns about its financial future.

Moody's said the European Union's insistence on involving private sector holders of Greek debt in a second bailout for the country indicates the same would happen for Portugal.

The agency's report is a blow to Portugal as it tries to distance itself from Greece, which has had to redouble painful austerity measures because it did not meet debt reduction targets.

Moody's said Portugal faces huge challenges in reducing spending and tax evasion, achieving economic growth and supporting the banking system and did not exclude another rating cut.



"A further downgrade could be triggered by a significant slippage in the execution of the government's fiscal consolidation program, a further downward revision of the country's economic growth prospects or an increased risk that further support requires private sector participation," Moody's said in its report.



In Lisbon, Portugal's new center-right coalition government said the downgrade showed the country faced an "adverse environment" in its debt-cutting efforts and that only by sticking to its promises to severely cut costs would it reverse its financial decline.

But the Finance Ministry said in a statement that the downgrade overlooked some good news -- that more than 80 percent of votes in a general election last month went to parties that back austerity and reform, demonstrating a broad national consensus for change.

Also, the statement noted, the government last week announced a one-off supplemental tax on personal income this year to bring about a sharp reduction in debt and has decided to speed up a privatization program.

Ratings agency Moody's onced more showed they have no credibility and should be banned..

The Pyramid Scheme

This is how the pyramid scheme is working amongst oil speculators:

Speculator #1: I buy oil from the market
Speculator #2: (he is a friend of speculator #1) I buy oil from speculator #1 at a higher price .
Speculator #1: I buy the same oil that I just sold at a higher price.
Speculators #1 and #2 contact the media (like AP) and release a bogus report about oil futures ...Oil goes up and the vicious cycle between these crooks continue to rob us blind ...
By the way the names of speculators #1, #2 are Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.

Consuming nations

Oil fell in New York on concern the economic expansion in the U.S. and in most European Nations is slowing and as the International Energy Agency said it’s prepared to release more stockpiles to stabilize prices.

Futures dropped as much as 1.5 percent before reports this week that may show U.S. consumer spending climbed at the slowest pace in almost a year and manufacturing cooled. The IEA, adviser to 28 nations, will act again if needed, Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said in Beijing on June 25. Greek lawmakers will vote on a five-year austerity plan that must pass for the cash- strapped nation to secure more international aid.
Leading into the IEA’s decision to release stockpiles, we had a global economy that is slowing and we already had concerns over Greece, the IEA’s move suggests there is more urgency for lower oil prices than the market though.

Crude for August delivery fell as much as $1.34 to $89.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $90.34 at 8:43 a.m. Singapore time. Prices rose 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $91.16 on June 24, and are up 15 percent in the past year.
Brent oil for August delivery fell as much as $2.84, or 2.7 percent, to $102.28 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The contract dropped $2.14, or 2 percent, to $105.12 a barrel on June 24, the lowest close since Feb. 18.
Brent, the European benchmark contract, traded at a premium of $12.75 a barrel to U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures.
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to start a third round of quantitative easing, known as QE3, when a $600 billion purchase program ends this week.

The world’s biggest crude user may release oil stockpiles to drive prices lower and stimulate consumption.
Instead of QE3, we have IEA1, which is the release of strategic oil reserves, the IEA’s decision is really pushing oil prices down.
Consuming nations will release emergency oil stockpiles through the IEA for the third time in more than three decades as the war in Libya chokes global supplies, the Paris-based agency said on June 23.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will provide 30 million barrels of the IEA release, European members will supply about 20 million and Asian nations about 10 million barrels.
It’s helping Greece, it’s helping Europe, it’s helping everyone by lowering the cost of oil imports. Except in the case of Portugal, were they continue to have one of the most expensive final consumer prices for the motorist at the filing station, at the moment BP has the most expensive price per liter 1,601 for regular 95 Octane.
This attitude by the petrol companies Galp, BP, Repsol and Cepsa will affect Portugals austerity plan, as consumer demand will continue to drop as well as Tax revenue derived from petrol produtcs.
It seems like there’s a policy shift by the U.S. and some European Nations to try and get external markets to help lower crude prices, except in Portugal were consumer prices are inflated to record cost.

OPEC’s failure

Oil rose to a one-week high in New York after OPEC failed to reach an agreement on production targets for the first time in at least 20 years at its meeting in Vienna 08-06-2011.
Futures gained 1.7 percent after Mohammad Aliabadi, the acting Iranian oil minister and OPEC president, said the group will maintain current output for now. A Gulf delegate said yesterday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was going to increase quotas.
The market is higher because OPEC failed to raise production ,we seeing the big reaction to the OPEC news because a quota increase was expected.

Crude oil for July delivery rose $1.65 to $100.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since May 31. Prices are up 40 percent in the past year.
Brent crude oil for July delivery climbed $1.07, or 0.9 percent, to end the session at $117.85 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was the highest settlement since May 4.
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi, representing OPEC’s biggest producer, said his country is ready to supply whatever the market needs.
According to WorldWatch, OPEC has sentenced its own fate, as this failure in production targets will cause a further 3% in crude demand.

Saudi Arabia, together with Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, were ready to supply more oil to the market, al- Naimi said. The four nations proposed a 1.5 million-barrel-a-day increase from the current 28.8 million. That would have meant output of 30.3 million barrels a day.
Libya, Angola, Ecuador, Algeria, Iran and Venezuela were opposed to an increase, as these Nations have serious social and economical problems they also have limited spare capacity
More oil is going to quietly come out of the Gulf, they are concerned about rising demand in the third and fourth quarters and don’t want to see the market starved and see prices rise to such a high level that they hurt economic growth.

JPMorgan analysts are also SPECULATING that oil prices will rise, this is what the Bank needs to meet its financial obligations and cover up its bad credit defecit.
The knee-jerk reaction to the OPEC news is probably a little overdone, it does show that there’s dissension among the members. We’re trading more on the political implications of the meeting than any changes in physical oil supply.

OPEC’s failure to reach a decision on targets shows Iran has increased its stature within the group, according to Petromatrix GmbH. Iran has replaced Saudi Arabia as the most influential member.
The 11 members with quotas, all except Iraq, produced 26.22 million barrels a day last month, 1.375 million above their target, according to WorldWatch News estimates.

OPEC has been operating well above their allocation levels for some time, over 1.3 million barrels a day above, even with Libya production off the market, the allocation levels have had little connection to actual production levels for some time.

Oil in New York has traded between $95.02 and $104.60 since May 9..

Brent oil

Oil headed for a weekly gain in New York on speculation that the global economic recovery will sustain demand for fuel.

Crude rose as much as 0.8 percent after Group of Eight leaders said the world economy is gaining strength and as a weakening dollar boosted the appeal of commodities. Futures narrowed their gains after a report showed European confidence in the economy weakened for a third straight month in May. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may raise output quotas to meet global demand, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

High commodity prices are starting to take their toll on growth, Oil demand data is weak, in particular for gasoline demand.

Crude for July delivery was at $100.48 a barrel, up 25 cents, at 12:35 p.m. London time, after rising as much as 80 cents to $101.03. Futures yesterday fell $1.09 to $100.23, the lowest settlement since May 24. Prices are up 1 percent this week and 10 percent this year.

Brent oil for July settlement was up 8 cents at $115.13 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract yesterday rose 12 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $115.05, the highest closing price since May 10.

Osama bin Laden

Oil settled lower Monday after the dollar rose in afternoon trading.

Benchmark crude for June delivery fell 41 cents to settle at $113.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude lost 77 cents to settle at $125.12 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil dropped below $111 a barrel early Monday, after President Barack Obama announced Osama bin Laden was killed by U.S. forces in Pakistan. The dollar rose at the same time. Oil is priced in dollars, so as the dollar strengthens oil becomes less attractive to investors with foreign currency, and the price falls.
Later in the day, the dollar weakened and oil recovered some ground.

Bin Laden's death represents a tipping point for global oil and commodities prices, and the exit of Libya's Moammar Gadhafi could remove further uncertainty about oil supplies in the region.

The main concerns are the lingering issues of sovereign debt such as Greece, Irland and Portugal and the economic recovery, WorldWatch warns that if the consumer petrol pump prices in Portugal continues to rise, as it is already one of the most expensive in the world, then economic recovery will be a dream.
Gas pump prices are still climbing. The national average for a liter of regular 95 Octane is a staggering 1.641€, the most expensive ever.

International Monetary Fund

March unemployment in Portugal ranked the 10th highest among EU member countries at 11.1%, the same as the previous month, but higher than the 10.7% registered one year earlier
Portugal has one of the most expensive final consumer price for petrol (gas-US) in the world.
The prices are inflated on a weekly basis by the four companies present.Galp, BP, Repsol and Cepsa.

Galp Energy Regular 95 Octane (1,641) per litre.
Cepsa Regular 95 Octane (1,641) per litre.
BP Regular 95 Octane (1,641) per litre.
Repsol Regular 95 Octane (1,641) per litre.

Petrol has reached the most expensive price per litre ever in Portugal, passing the historic mark of July 2008, 1,525 eurosper litre...back then the crude price was $147 per barril not at todsaysprice of $91 per barril...
This type of price fixing is not allowed by EEC members but corruption is like a spiders web, reaches all governing bodies.
These prices are higher than the ones practiced in 2008, this and the defice of Portugal will sink even further the consumer spending, demand for petrol will have a decline in the first quarter of 2011 of 24%, according to chief analyst WorldWatch Portugal will enter a recession with possible social unrest caused by the increase in fuel, energy,medical care, education, unemployment (above 11.1%) and the reduction of public servants wages by a Further 5%.