The European Union

Oil fell in New York, paring its biggest weekly gain since March, as a drop in Japanese industrial output prompted traders to lock in profits from yesterday’s price surge.

Futures slid as much as 1.5 percent after Japanese factory production declined 4 percent in September. Oil rallied yesterday after data showed the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at the fastest pace in a year and European leaders agreed on a plan to curb the region’s debt crisis.
The Japanese data is pouring some cold water of economic reality over the euphoria that erupted in the market yesterday, there’s also some profit-taking after the relief rally yesterday.
Crude for December delivery decreased as much as $1.95 to $92.01 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $92.60 at 1:04 p.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract advanced $3.76 to $93.96, the highest settlement since Aug. 1. Prices are 6 percent higher this week, set for the biggest gain since the period ended March 4, and have climbed 17 percent this month, the most since May 2009.
Brent oil for December settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange lost as much as $1.85, or 1.7 percent, to $110.23 a barrel, trimming this week’s gain to 1.3 percent. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $18.35 to New York crude, compared with settlements of $18.12 yesterday and a record high of $27.88 on Oct. 14.

The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate, up from 1.3 percent in the prior three months, Commerce Department data showed yesterday. Household purchases, the biggest contributor to gross domestic product, rose at a 2.4 percent pace, more than forecast by economists.
European leaders pressured bondholders into accepting 50 percent write downs on Greek debt and agreed to boost a rescue fund to 1 trillion euros ($1.4trillion) in a package intended to tame a crisis that threatens to slow the global economy and curb demand for commodities.


The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consumer, using 19.1 million barrels a day in 2010, or 21 percent of global consumption, according to BP Plc’s annual Statistical Review of World Energy. The European Union accounted for 16 percent of the total and Japan for 5 percent.
New York crude will fall next week on concern European leaders’ plans to fight the debt crisis may provide limited relief, based on a WorldWatch News survey. Fourteen of 29 analysts and traders, or 48 percent, forecast oil will decline through Nov. 4. Six predicted a price gain and nine said there will be little change.
Brent crude oil, which has gained 17 percent this year, may slump as limited gains this week signal that its rally has almost run out of momentum.
The price of Brent has barely gained since the start of the week, this is an indication that the upward potential for Brent is virtually exhausted and a price slump can be expected once the excessive euphoria on financial markets at present starts to fade.

Except in one of Europes oldest economies, Portugal were petrol prices continue on a upward trend ignoring international crude prices.

Recession

Oil declined in New York, heading for a second weekly loss, as a rescue plan for Europe’s debt-laden economies seems to be faltering in particular with Greece, while a worse forecast retail sales indicated concerns that the U.S. economy is slowing.
Brent crude surged to its lowest in a week. European officials are outlining a rescue plan that may include deeper investor losses on Greek bonds, higher bank capital levels and increased firepower for bailouts and the International Monetary Fund.
The talk of recession is quieter, as a forecast Brent will average $98 a barrel in the fourth quarter, the oil market itself has grown surprisingly tight. Inventories are very low, at least in Europe, as supplies are not coming back fast enough and, despite all the talk of slowdown, demand seems to be holding up.

Crude for November delivery dropped to $86.48 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent oil for November settlement dropped to $109.40 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark future, which expires today, reached a record premium of $27.73 a barrel to U.S. crude earlier today. The more-active December contract was up $2.26 at $111.46.

Greek default

Oil fell in New York, after closing last week at a one-year low, on concern that Greece will default on debt payments, leading to slower economic growth and fuel consumption.
Futures slipped as much as 2.3 percent after dropping 17 percent since the end of June in the worst quarter since 2008. Reports this week may show manufacturing in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, barely grew last month, while job growth failed to cut unemployment. European finance ministers meet today in Luxembourg to weigh the threat of a Greek default.
Saudi Arabian Oil Co. canceled a crude shipment to Royal Dutch Shell Plc after a fire at Shell’s largest oil refinery.

A Greek default is becoming more and more likely amid reports the country will miss debt-reduction targets,” said JPC, a strategist at WorldWatch who forecasts Brent will average $98 a barrel in the fourth quarter. “The weaker euro and falling equity market are pulling oil prices lower.”
Crude for November delivery fell as much as $1.84 to $77.36 a barrel inelectronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $78.22 at 12:35 p.m. London time. The contract fell 3.6 percent to $79.20 on Sept. 30, the lowest close since Sept. 29, 2010. Last quarter’s decline was the biggest since the three months ended Dec. 31, 2008.