28/12/2010

Crude Speculation

Portugal continues to have one of the most expensive final consumer price for petrol for the average motorist in the world, as WorldWatch confirmed this month alone consumer prices have increased by more than 8 cents per litre..
The involved companies continue to practice inflated prices as the government goes along with these prices in order to fill the now empty state financial vaults.

Galp Energy increased this week diesel by 2.5 cents (1,334), Regular 95
Octane by 2 cents (1,529)...per litre.
Cepsa increased this week diesel by 1.8 cents (1,331), Regular 95 Octane
by 1.7 cents (1,522)...per litre.
BP increased this week diesel by 1 cents (1,335), Regular 95 Octane by 0.4
cents (1,529)...per litre.
Repsol increased this week diesel by 2.5 cents (1,334), Regular 95 Octane
by 2 cents (1,529)...per litre.

This type of price fixing is not allowed by EEC members but corruption is like a spiders web, reaches all governing bodies.
These prices are higher than the ones practiced in 2008, this and the defice of Portugal will sink even further the consumer spending, demand for petrol will have a decline in the first quarter of 2011 of 24%, according to chief analyst WorldWatch Portugal will enter a recession with possible social unrest caused by the increase in fuel, energy,medical care,education,unemployment (above 11%) and the reduction of public servants wages by 5%.

27/12/2010

People’s Bank of China

China’s monetary tightening in 2011 is a effort to tackle the fastest inflation in more than two years, according to WorldWatch chief analysts.

The People’s Bank of China increased key one-year lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points on Christmas Day in its second move since mid-October.
The change took effect yesterday and according to the current premier Wen Jiabao’s government aims to limit asset bubbles in the real-estate market and prevent rising prices from leading to social unrest after flooding the economy with cash from late 2008 to drive an economic recovery. Officials stated China will raise rates as many as three times in the first half of next year..

These policy moves will be front-loaded in coming months, as headline inflation figures remain high and economic growth faces overheating risks early next year.
The benchmark lending rate rose to 601 percent, compared with 7.47 percent before cuts from late 2008 to counter the global financial crisis. It will climb to 6.56 percent by the end of first half next year.
The deposit rate increased to 2.05 percent, compared with the 5.1 percent annual pace of inflation in November.
Officials have raised bank reserve ratios seven times this year and trimmed loan growth from record levels. They also in June scrapped the yuan’s almost two-year peg to the dollar as part of winding down crisis policies.
Since then, the currency has gained about 3 percent, with non-deliverable forwards showing that traders are betting on a further increase of about 2 percent in the next 12 months.
Consumer prices rose 6.1 percent in November from a year earlier, the most in 28 months, mainly driven by food costs. Across 70 major cities, property prices climbed 8.1 percent.
China’s economy may expand 8.6 percent in 2011, the International Monetary Fund estimated in October. That compared with estimates that U.S. growth will be 2.1 percent and the euro area expansion will be 1.5 percent.

15/12/2010

Dubai property slump..

Dubai property will continue to drop for the next two years, extending a decline in the Persian Gulf sheikhdom that’s already cut values by more than 60 percent since the 2008 peak.

Residential values will fall as much as 20 percent more by the end of 2012if new homes are built as planned, according to broker Landmark Advisory in Dubai. Cluttons LLP, a London-based property consultant, and Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., the second- largest publicly traded commercial property broker, also forecast further declines.
About 48,000 homes will come on to the market in the next two years, or about 12 percent of existing supply, according to WorldWatch director of research . An influx of foreign buyers sparked a construction boom as prices rose by 79 percent to mid-2008 from 2007 before the financial crisis caused lenders to tighten credit and speculators left the market.

There is still no parity between supply and demand,about 35,000 homes will be completed through 2012.You’re looking at a good two years for Dubai’s market to reach bottom.
If crude prices continue to rise this situation will be even worse for Dubai and surrounding Nations.
Emaar Properties PJSC, Dubai’s biggest developer and the builder of the world’s tallest tower, reported a 7 percent drop in third-quarter profit, missing analyst estimates, as costs and writedowns increased. Construction firm Arabtec Holding PJSC saw earnings slump 96 percent, while apartment and office builder Deyaar Development PJSC reported a loss. Home prices
fell 6 percent in the quarter from the previous three months, Colliers International said on Nov. 7.
Almost half of Dubai’s planned real estate projects, from offices to villas, were canceled as buyers defaulted and access to funding became harder. Residents who lost their jobs had to leave the country within 30 days, causing many to abandon their cars and mortgages.

Without an influx of demand from outside the country, WorldWatch estimates that home prices will drop 5 percent to 10 percent by next summer.
Attracting foreigners became more challenging after the government changed residency rules last year. From 2002, property ownership qualified the buyer for a five-year residency visa that was easily renewed. That changed in May 2009, when new United Arab Emirates regulations cut the length of residency visas to six months and required holders to leave the country and
return for renewals, paying 2,000 dirhams ($546) per visa each time.

The law also says a property must be worth at least one million dirhams and be large enough to accommodate the number of people granted residency as a result. In addition, it requires the buyer to have monthly income of no less than 10,000 dirhams as well as medical insurance.
Home prices will drop 15 percent to 20 percent by 2012 if the most residential buildings currently under construction go onto the market as scheduled.
If the crude price control below $83 a barrel is delayed, that will only prolong the cycle, until prices come down further and buyers have greater certainty over long-term rent yields.

06/12/2010

The mother of all recessions

Oil prices may soar to $200 a barrel if the world doesn’t move more rapidly to a clean-energy economy, It’s certainly conceivable unless we can start to conserve energy quickly and come up with alternative fuels,WorldWatch predicts an “unbelievably painful” economic slump if governments don’t do more to encourage renewable energy as an alternative to fossil fuels such
as oil. In the U.S., where efforts to cap carbon-dioxide emissions failed in the Senate earlier this year, unemployment could reach record highs, as is the case with Portugal were fuel prices for the motorist increase on a weekly basis making it one of the most expensive in the world.
This week alone prices increased by as much as cents per litre!!!

Galp regular 95 Octane is now a staggering 1,479 euros per litre.
Cepsa regular 95 Octane is now a staggering 1,479 euros per litre.
BP regular 95 Octane is now a staggering 1,479 euros per litre.
Repsol regular 95 Octane is now a staggering 1,489 euros per litre.

We are going to have the mother of all recessions if we don’t sort out our energy policy fast, we think we’ve got it bad today. In five years time unemployment could go to 15 percent without any difficulty at all in the US.
Meanwhile, negotiators from about 190 countries are grappling with how to proceed in United Nations-led treaty talks to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. Industrialized and developing nations are divided over the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

Japan, Russia and Canada have refused to sign up for a second round of emissions reductions once the current ones written into Kyoto expire in 2012.

Oil shale crude In the middle of all this market crises..some "Did you know".. Oil shale crude is actually composed of kero...