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Europe and other nations that have relations with Venezuela should be aware that the same tumbling oil prices that led OPEC to slash output last week threatens to send Venezuela's economy into a tailspin, and put an end President Hugo Chavez ambitions to expand his socialist revolution at home and abroad.
To cope with plummeting oil revenue, the source of half the government's spending, Chavez will cut domestic handouts and foreign aid. The first items likely to go will be arms purchases from Russia, oil subsidies for Cuba, and job- creating local projects such as bridges and subways...
Venezuela is a country with an oil boom, that doesn't know how to save, doesn't know how to set up productive industries that generate jobs, and goes into debt, then oil prices fall and the party ends !!!
Venezuela may be poised to repeat the economic collapse it suffered in the 1980s at the end of its last oil boom. Former President Carlos Andres Perez, employing policies similar to Chavez's, lavished petrodollars on public works projects, foreign aid and nationalizations in the late 1970s, setting the stage for a 1983 currency devaluation and spending cuts that sent millions of Venezuelans into poverty.
Venezuela is now more dependent than ever on oil, Venezuela is the most vulnerable country in all of Latin America to a falling oil price.
Chavez is already spending beyond his means, posting a $7 billion budget deficit in the first half of 2008, a period of unprecedented oil prices, on a $63.9 billion budget for the year.
Economists' estimates of the minimum oil price Chavez needs to sustain his economic policies range from $120 a barrel to $65. Oil settled Oct. 24 at a 16-month low of $64.15 a barrel in New York. Below $80 a barrel, it's likely that Chavez will devalue the bolivar for the first time since 2005, sparking a surge of inflation and a drop in real wages because of Venezuela's reliance on imports...
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One of the instigators of this move is once more the Venezuelan president Hugo Chaves; he now wishes to control the production of crude by keeping crude above $90 a barrel!!!
Hugo Chaves and other OPEC members have forgotten that the worst financial crisis in decades is mainly because the crude producers inflated crude prices to a record a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11... EVEN Chinese growth slipped back to 9.9 percent for the first nine months of the year amid falling demand for Chinese-made goods ...
If they now curtail production they will worsen the global situation placing their own economies in a dangerous situation as is the case in Venezuela were supermarkets are empty....
WorldWatch has predicted that Crude demand will drop by another 3% ... oil prices will drop to around $50 a barrel if the producers go ahead with the cut in production....
SPECULATION by producers, oil companies, governments, traders and bankers are the main reason for this world recession...
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WorldWatch Index of 19 commodities from coffee to silver would have to drop another 37 percent to reach the trough of the 2001 recession and 35 percent for the 1998 slide, when crude bottomed at $10.35 a barrel. The measure is 28 percent above its lowest during the economic contraction that ended in November 1982. Copper, after its biggest weekly loss in two decades last week, is still triple 2001 levels.
While tumbling prices of oil, nickel and soybeans already crippled stock markets from Moscow to Sao Paulo and sliced Alcoa Inc.'s profits by 52 percent, investors say rising stockpiles of copper and slowing energy demand mean prices will continue to fall. The U.S. and Europe slowdown will last more than a year and be deeper than any in three decades !!!
This downturn is going to make 2001 look like a walk in the park, this is the bursting of a 25- year asset-credit bubble. People have really stopped spending money, everywhere. Crude oil at $77.70 a barrel and copper at $4,790 a metric ton, the Oct. 10 closing prices, are at least 46 percent below their July peaks, signaling an end to record profit ... However there are some oil companies that continue to have record profits , these companies Galp,BP, Repsol and Cepsa operate in Portugal were the consumer at the pump has one of the most expensive prices per litre of fuel in the world, in fact consumers are paying the fuel at a price of around $130.00 a barrel and not at todays price of $80.00 a barrel....
The decrease in fuel prices have not acompanied the international market value...on the other hand when it comes to increase the price the reaction is immediate.There is no real justification for these prices, governments ,oil companies and even the filling stations are guilty of corruption as they all practice the same prices....this type of price control is prohibited in the EEC !!!
Oil consumption in Portugal this year has dropped more than 13% and all tendencies indicate that it will continue and pass the 15% !!! This arrogant attitude by the oil companies and government will not be forgotten as Portugal will shortly enter a period of elections for a new government, the population will certainly have the opportunity to elect a new government that will work for the people and not for the oil industry..We've entered the realm of irrational anti-exuberance....
In the four corners of the world the recession has gripped many economies, we have the example of Iceland, whose per capita gross domestic product is the fifth highest in the world, however after a four-year spending spree, Icelanders are facing the collapse of the banking system, Iceland's foreign currency market has seized up after the three largest banks collapsed and the government abandoned an attempt to peg the exchange rate.Iceland's rugged, treeless terrain, a barren stretch of volcanic rock, geysers and moss, means the country imports most food, other than meat, fish and dairy products.Iceland's 320,000 inhabitants have enjoyed four years of economic growth in excess of 4 percent as banks and businesses expanded abroad, buying up companies from brokerages to West Ham United soccer club. Now, the three biggest banks, Kaupthing Bank hf, Landsbanki Island hf and Glitnir Bank hf have collapsed under the weight of about $61 billion in debts, 12 times the size of the economy....
Another recession gripped state is Dubai, it May Need Help from Abu Dhabi to Repay Debts,and the federal government of the United Arab Emirates to help pay for a surge in borrowing ...Government-controlled companies owe at least $47 billion in total, more than Dubai's gross domestic product, Dubai has borrowed to fund real estate projects including Burj Dubai, the world's tallest tower, and to buy stakes in Deutsche Bank AG, European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co. and Standard Chartered Plc, as it seeks to reduce dependence on its dwindling oil reserves.
Dubai World, a state-owned holding company, acquired almost 10 percent of Kirk Kerkorian's MGM Mirage last year for about $5.1 billion. MGM shares have since tumbled to $16.80 from $84 when the deal was agreed.Deutsche Bank shares have fallen nearly 70 percent since Dubai government-owned DIFC Investments bought a 2.2 percent stake for about $1.8 billion in May 2007.
Dubai controls its economy through state-owned companies that dominate each major industry. Dubai Holding LLC, which groups assets belonging to Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, owns hotel chain Jumeirah Group and Dubai International Capital, which unsuccessfully bid for Liverpool Football Club earlier this year.
Abu Dhabi and Dubai are the two-largest emirates in the seven-member U.A.E.
Both these Nations have large assets in Europe and as a consequence of their financial shut down we may now see a snowball effect on some Economies such as... Britain. ...
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Oil prices have fallen in the past month with concerns about waning global energy consumption.
Light, sweet crude for November delivery was up $193 to $89.74 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by noon in Europe. The contract fell overnight $6.07 to settle at $87.81, the lowest level since Feb. 6.
Prices have fallen about 40 percent since reaching a record at $147.27 on July 11.
The drop came as world stock markets plunged amid growing investor anxiety that the U.S. bad debt crisis is enveloping Europe. Germany announced Sunday a bailout package totaling €50 billion ($69 billion) for Hypo Real Estate, the country's second-biggest commercial property lender, part of a scramble by European governments to save failing banks.
What happened over the weekend was further evidence of the spread of this financial crisis to Europe, this deepens the sentiment that we're going to see a more widespread economic slowdown or even recession, and that's no good for oil demand but its great for consumers as prices will keep falling...Oil demand in the world's richest countries had already begun to slow since May,since OPEC, governments and oil companies started speculating and using crude as a weapon causing a slow but sure recession across the globe as most industrialized countries are now facing serious money shortage
The US rescue plan should keep a complete financial meltdown from occuring, but the demand data is not encouraging. In the developed countries it's falling, and that's why we're seeing downward pressure on prices.
In other signs the meltdown is spreading, Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme said Sunday that France's BNP Paribas had committed to taking a 75-percent stake in troubled European bank Fortis NV. British treasury chief Alistair Darling said he was ready to take "pretty big steps that we wouldn't take in ordinary times" to help the country weather the credit crunch.
Its unsuitabler for both producers and consumers if oil does not dip below $80 a barrel.Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossien Nozari said Saturday
"OPEC has signaled it may defend $80,"
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Portugal continues to have one of the most expensive final consumer prices of any oil product (diesel /regular) in the world ...This situation places the economy in the RED, as consumers pay more and more for energy....while in the international market prices are falling...
There is no justification for the inflated gasoline prices sold by Galp, BP and REPSOL and in particular by BP.!!!
Oil in New York has fallen +/-35 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11 as high prices and slowing global economic growth reduce demand for fuels ... however Portugal this very moment has the most expensive final consumer price for gasoline in Europe and one of the highest in the world... BP filling stations are the most expensive ...
Oil prices have fallen about $15, or 13 percent, in the past month as investor concerns about waning global energy consumption outweigh threats to supplies caused by Gulf Coast hurricanes and militant attacks in Nigeria.
The slump in energy demand has accelerated beyond the U.S. In India, domestic oil product sales totaled 2.41 million barrels per day in August, the lowest level this year, according to Barclays Capital research. In the same month, Japan's oil demand fell by 8.4 percent.
Significant gains over the past days by the dollar against the euro have also helped push down prices. Investors tend to buy commodities like oil to defend against dollar weakness and a hedge against inflation, but return to the U.S. currency as it strengthens.
Oil consumption in Portugal this year has dropped more than 11% and all tendencies indicate that it will continue and pass the 14% !!!
This arrogant attitude by the oil companies and government will not be forgotten as Portugal will shortly enter a period of elections for a new government, the population will certainly have the opportunity to elect a new government that will work for the people and not for the oil industry...
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