ECONOMIC EXPANSION

Christmas time is over and as we near the end of the year 2007 we see that SPECULATION continues to control the crude prices as this “black gold” rose for a third day in New York on concern shipments from Iraq may be disrupted after the Turkish military attacked bases of Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq.

Turkish jets bombed eight sites in northern Iraq where the military suspected Kurdish rebels were setting up camp, the military said in a statement on its Web site. The strikes targeted mountain caves and other shelters in the Zap region of neighboring northern Iraq. Iraq exports crude oil through its northern pipeline to Turkey.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said yesterday attacks on bases of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, in Iraq would continue.
There are a lot of flashpoints being created by the geopolitical conflicts, there are so many flare-ups -- Iraq, Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela … Iraq exported 1.9 million barrels of oil a day in September compared with 1.69 million barrels a day in August, according to data supplied by the U.S. Department of State. The Middle East oil producer holds the world's third-largest crude oil reserves.
Turkey launched bombing raids against the PKK in Iraq on Dec. 16 and Dec. 22 and briefly sent troops over the border. As many as 175 PKK fighters were killed in the first of those attacks, the Turkish military said on its Web site.

Oil rose Above $96 on Expected Supply Drop, Turkish Air Strike

Seriously folks this Turkey PKK affair is almost as old as Turkey itself, there is no reason for this conflict to affect crude prices…SPECULATION… The Turkish attacks are factored in but this isn't a new problem and it has had no impact on the oil flow…
Crude oil rose above $96 a barrel in New York for the first time this month as a government report tomorrow may show a U.S. inventory decline …every excuse is used to keep prices as they are…this is a very volatile situation !! The ongoing Turkish air attacks are an excuse to push prices to the upside

This week we will have more news that the US Supplies probably dropped 1.75 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 21, and this is how SPECULATION is used to manipulate crude prices…

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MCMLXX (1970)

Black Gold or better called Crude oil ... the prices behave much as any other commodity with wide price swings in times of shortage or oversupply. The crude oil price cycle may extend over several years responding to changes in demand as well as OPEC and non-OPEC supply.

The U.S. petroleum industry's price has been heavily regulated through production or price controls throughout much of the twentieth century. In the post World War II era U.S. oil prices at the wellhead averaged $24.20 per barrel adjusted for inflation to 2006 dollars. In the absence of price controls the U.S. price would have tracked the world price averaging $26.16. Over the same post war period the median for the domestic and the adjusted world price of crude oil was $18.53 in 2006 prices. That means that only fifty percent of the time from 1947 to 2006 have oil prices exceeded $18.53 per barrel.

Until the March 28, 2000 adoption of the $22-$28 price band for the OPEC basket of crude, oil prices only exceeded $24.00 per barrel in response to war or conflict in the Middle East. With limited spare production capacity OPEC abandoned its price band in 2005 and was powerless to stem a surge in oil prices which was reminiscent of the late 1970s. Now were are we...$92 per barrel !!!

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The oil industry operates on the crude market. Crude is vital to nearly all other industries, if not industrialized civilization itself, and thus is critical concern to many nations. Oil accounts for a large percentage of the world’s energy consumption, ranging from a low of 32% for Europe and Asia, up to a high of 53% for the Middle East. Other geographic regions’ consumption patterns are as follows: South and Central America (44%), Africa (41%), and North America (40%). The world at large consumes 30 billion barrels (4.8 km³) of oil per year, and the top oil consumers largely consist of developed nations. In fact, 24% of the oil consumed in 2004 went to the United States alone.
The production, distribution, refining, and retailing of petroleum taken as a whole represent the single largest industry in terms of dollar value on earth.
Ninety-five percent of oil and gas formations derive from the decayed plants and bacteria which sank to the bottom of seas, sheltered lakes and other moist areas. Over time the decayed residue was covered by layers of mud and silt, sinking further down into the Earth’s crust and preserved there between hot and pressured layers, gradually transforming into oil reservoirs.

The Galp Energia Group is a Portuguese corporation which consists of more than 100 companies engaged in activities such as: natural gas supply, regasification, transport, storage and distribution; petroleum products exploration, production, refining, trading, logistics and retailing; co-generation and renewable energy.
Born in the year 2000, from the former state-owned oil and gas company Petrogal, Galp Energia today has a strong presence across the Iberian Peninsula. Its stock was partially listed on the Euronext Lisbon stock exchange in the second half of 2006. NOW THEY ARE ALSO IN THE TUPI OIL FIELD...

The year 2007 is almost over, all the happenings we had along the year all affected the final consumer price, but the most used by oil companies and Governments was SPECULATION...
SPECULATION has kept the crude prices high and in turn the crude producing countries have used this instrument to obtain higher and higher profits... compared to the same time last year... PETROL PRICES FINISH THE YEAR IN THE 61 DOLARS PER BARREL.LAST SESSION OF 2006 CLOSED THE NYMEX AT 61,05 DOLARS, WHILE THE BRENT FOR REFERENCE IN EUROPE CLOSED 60,86 DOLARS.
Now as we reach the end of 2007 we have the PETROL PRICES FINISH THE YEAR IN THE +/- 92 DOLARS PER BARREL...quite a difference... with no major happenings to justify this increase .... so who is to blame...!! blame the oil companies...Governments...Crude exporters...BLAME SPECULATION...

Our WorldWatch reported that crude oil prices were lower on Monday despite rising geopolitical tensions in two oil-producing regions after Algeria’s oil minister said that there is a possibility that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could increase production of the market warrants it ... but who will believe them...this is not the first time they say they will increase production...pure SPECULATION..however data released by an organization that tracks the movements of oil tankers said that OPEC exports are already up by around 400,000 barrels per day.
Prices for crude for January delivery fell to $90.63 per barrel by the close of trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while January contracts for Brent crude were down to $90.59 per barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. Since every excuss is used to obtain crude today Turkish troops have attacked Kurdish rebels inside Iraq while Nigerian militants called for rebel groups in that nation to unite to attack the oil industry there......attack the oil industry !!! they are attacking themselves...

As mentioned before on this blog and according to financial reports China's industrial production grew at the slowest pace this year, suggesting weaker export growth and government curbs on lending are starting to cool the world's fastest-growing major economy.

The global economic slowdown mainly due to the crude price may further curb overseas shipments after the government this year reduced tax incentives for exporters.In China the inflation jumped to an 11-year high in November., firms must scale down production to avoid a quick build- up of inventories as they expect export growth to slow, steel-product exports fell in November to the lowest level in more than a year, this slowdown in steel output means targeting polluting and high-energy consuming industries is working..
China's economic growth is likely to slow to 10.5 percent in 2008 from 11.4 percent this year on tightening measures, but will these measures have a effect a shoret term effect on the price of crude or will the black gold continue to rise...

The Mannheim-based ZEW Center for European Economic Research reported that investor confidence in Germany dropped to the lowest in almost 15 years in December as rising credit costs dimmed the outlook for economic growth, the lowest since January 1993.The U.S. housing slump has pushed money-market rates to the highest in at least six years, adding to record oil costs and the strongest euro ever in hurting companies. Investors expect the credit squeeze to continue beyond the first quarter of 2008.

The gloom reflects investors' concerns about the economy both in Europe and the US.

UBS AG, Europe's largest bank by assets, yesterday said it will write down $10 billion in subprime investments, the biggest such loss by a European bank.
The slump in global credit markets may force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion and trigger a substantial recession in the U.S, however WorldWatch think its unjustified that Banks are concerned that liquidity would dry up at the end of the year.

Most European nations that export goods know the euro's 11 percent advance against the dollar this year is making European exports less competitive abroad, adding to investors' concerns.Domestic demand may not offset a fall-off in foreign sales as oil-driven inflation is sapping consumer and company spending power. The price of oil has gained 44 percent this year.

History mentions that the Chinese used oil from natural seeps as fuel to boil salt brine into salt. Initially bamboo was pounded vertically into oil containing seeps and removed by suction.
With time this led to drilling for oil, as they needed to penetrate deeper and deeper into oil containing underground seeps. In 347 AD oil wells were drilled in China up to 800 feet deep using bits attached to bamboo poles.
Connecting lengths of bamboo to carry oil to their salt brine work sites; they were the first to invent an elementary oil pipeline.

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Gas coupon printed but not used in 1973 oil crisis
We are reaching closer to ‘peak oil’ with each passing day. Analysts predict the inevitable to come with this century. Present measures taken, the future consumption of petroleum in America may drop and possibly even decrease, but are biofuels really the key to the solution?
European countries have already made a switch to biofuels and are beginning to feel the effects and complications. While it hasn’t resulted in direct food shortages, biodiesel is already causing shortages of vegetable oils.
Will countries like China and India follow this trend in energy conversion? It is difficult to imagine any country with enormous population would make such a move. This conversion could result in massive world food shortages as never experienced. Both countries realize this and are pursuing aggressive oil exploration. Will this help or not….

Hugo Chavez's first and only priority is to socialize Venezuela's economy, he will push to nationalize industries, seize property and weaken central bank independence using his control of all 167 seats in congress and the 32-member Supreme Court...Will he succeed ?...will he resort to radical solutions to get what he wants ....!

The opinion of most people and goverments is that Chavez is quite "louco", perhaps the Venezuelan population have finally waken up...!

The key issue for Venezuela is oil revenue, if oil revenue drops for whatever reason and Chavez can't hand out goods, things will look very bad..

A ban on foreign-exchange trading that Chavez imposed in 2003 means businesses and individuals now pay almost three times the official rate of 2,150 bolivars in the black market, or about 6,100 bolivars per U.S. dollar. The ban sparked a surge in the cost of imports and worsened shortages, forcing the government to limit sales of rice, oil and sugar. This really is ridiculous, Venezuelans now have to wait in line for more than an hour to buy meat at a Central Madeirense CA supermarket in Caracas... will they get used to this ? will they keep supporting Chavez.!..

There is sufficient turbulence in the international crude market we dont need more turbulence..

Our WorldWatch received news fresh from Joburg that AngloGold, Africa's biggest gold producer, employs about 35,000 people in South Africa and 15,000 in other countries. South Africa accounts for half its output.

As of May, 458,600 people were employed by South Africa's mines with 159,984 of those working in gold mines and 168,479 employed by platinum producers, according to government figures. Coal, with 57,777 workers, is the next biggest employer. South Africa has a 25.5 percent unemployment rate, the highest of 72 countries tracked by several economical agencies around the world.

South Africa is the biggest source of coal for European power plants and the world's biggest producer of ferrochrome, manganese and vanadium.

The stoppages have cut production. Anglo Platinum said on Nov. 16 that this year's output will be as much as 7.5 percent below a target set in July because of safety measures the company is taking.
Of the deaths last year, 113 were in gold mines, 40 in platinum operations and 19 in coal mines. All except 10 of the rest died in diamond, copper, clay, iron ore, granite and limestone mines. The occupation of the other 10 workers wasn't disclosed in a Chamber of Mines booklet.

Still, gold-mine deaths have declined from a peak of 1,001 in 1909.

Platinum fell 50 cents to $1,460.50 an ounce . Gold dropped 0.85 percent to $800.20 an ounce today.

Vietnam's accession to the World as a economic power may have started ... after China, Vietnam is emerging as the world's next factory of choice for labor-intensive goods. The 4 million motorcycles on the streets of Ho Chi Minh City offer a remarkable noisy testimony to the prosperity that beckons Vietnam.

The labor cost in Vietnam is half that of China, while worker productivity is about the same, starting next year, the government will increase the mandated minimum wage for foreign-funded companies in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, the national capital, by 13 percent to 1 million Vietnamese dong ($62).

Also Vietnam's textile industry has been provided a quota-free access to the U.S. Joining the WTO regime, however the risk for Vietnam is inflation, which accelerated to 10 percent last month, the fastest pace in three years, in the short run, Vietnam must stand ready to sacrifice some economic growth to halt the increase in prices.

On the whole, though, Vietnam is on the road to prosperity.

Like most developing countries, Vietnam is dogged by corruption and red tape. It must strive to improve its record now that it's getting the investments it needs for the workers to graduate from motorcycles today to cars in the future.

SPECULATION is the tool most used by Oil Companies and oil producing countries so that Oil remains volatile and therefore prices can be kept high...

Oil markets are extremely jittery ahead of the OPEC meeting in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday 05-12-2007...
Early in the session, crude oil prices sank to their lowest in more than five weeks as the market speculated that OPEC would agree to boost output by another half a million barrels per day.

However, crude finished the session higher by 60 cents at $89.31, as more traders bet on OPEC's reluctance to add barrels with oil below $US90 a barrel, so to most analysts OPEC is a leaf in the wind, there is no direction that the leaf may blow.

OPEC President Mohammed al-Hamli said overnight that ''the market is adequately supplied. There is no shortage.
Crude prices remain down more than 10 percent from the November 21 peak of $99.29 a barrel on widespread worries the weakening Europe and US economy and the dampening impact that would have on demand... This was yesterday because....Oil prices rose after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to keep production targets unchanged, rejecting U.S. calls to raise output. Crude oil for January delivery climbed $1.55, or 1.8 percent, to $89.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

So now OPEC are as much to blame as certain goverments and oil companies for a possible weakening Europe and US economy even more...

Ending November we saw a decline in the Crude price as oil fell below $90 a barrel in the biggest weekly loss in two and a half years on concern slowing economic growth will cut energy demand, and as Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said supplies in the market are sufficient, however these oil prices don't reflect actual production and consumption trends.

The World and markets are simply becoming more concerned about the possible recession that can reduce petroleum demand,WorldWatch has been seeing evidence for some time of a weakening economy and weakening oil demand.

Crude oil for January delivery fell to settle at $88.71 a barrel at 2:45 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $88.45 a barrel, the lowest since Oct. 25. Oil dropped 9.7 percent last week, the biggest weekly loss since April 2005. Prices climbed to a record $99.29 a barrel on Nov. 21.

The U.S. dollar recorded its largest weekly gain against the euro since August, pressuring oil prices which rose earlier in the month on the currency's weakness.
Oil surged above $95 a barrel on the 29-11-2007 after an Enbridge Inc. crude oil pipeline in Minnesota exploded on Nov. 28. Enbridge said operations have now returned to normall..