ECONOMIC EXPANSION

As mentioned before in many situations in this blog the European inflation accelerated to the fastest in more than six years, adding pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates even as economic expansion cools, all this is because of SPECULATION in the price of crude..

The inflation rate in the 13-nation euro area rose to 3 percent this month from 2.6 percent in October, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said today.

An 82 percent surge in oil prices since mid-January and rising food prices are driving inflation further above the ECB's 2 percent ceiling. At the same time, easing economic growth may restrain ECB policy makers from increasing interest rates to slow the pace of price increases.

Food-price inflation in particular has become a big issue and we're likely to see that continue in 2008, all this together with the fuel prices practised here in Portugal by the main petrol companies lead by Galp, were we see a weekly rise in the final consumer price at the pump making this countries petrol prices one of the most expensive in the world.

Adverse weather conditions in food-producing countries and increasing demand from emerging economies are pushing up food prices. Wheat futures have risen 71 percent this year. The euro area's October inflation report showed that prices for bread, cheese and other food in Europe increased at the fastest annual pace in more than five years.

Europes inflation risks are clearly on the upside, crude-oil prices rose close to $100 a barrel this month and were at $90.73 today. At the same time, while economic growth remains robust the downside risks are predominant.

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Finally SPECULATION has slowed down and the result was instant as crude oil fell, reaching its biggest two-day drop since January.

U.S. Stockpiles fell 452,000 barrels to 313.2 million last week, according to the Energy Department. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York-traded West Texas Intermediate oil is stored, rose 665,000 barrels to 15.2 million. Refineries operated at 89.4 percent of capacity, the highest since the week ended Sept. 14, the report showed.

Crude-oil stocks didn't fall as much as expected and there was actually a big build in Cushing.

Crude oil for January delivery fell $3.80 to $90.62 a barrel at 2:45 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest close since Oct. 30. Futures reached $99.29 on Nov. 21, the highest intraday price since trading began in 1983. Prices are up 49 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude oil for January delivery fell to close at $89.81 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent reached $96.65 a barrel on Nov. 26, the highest since trading began in 1988.

Perhaps we will now be heading for the $90 area.

Refinery Maintenance has now ended, refiners usually start units in November that were shut during September and October to make repairs after the summer driving season and before heating demand picks up.

However today oil surged more than $4 a barrel, the most in a month, after an explosion cut Canadian oil shipments through Enbridge Inc. pipelines that typically provide about 15 percent of U.S. crude imports.

According to the news agency, Enbridge closed four pipelines that supply an average of 1.5 million barrels a day after a blast yesterday killed two workers. The company confirmed a fire is still burning at the Clearbrook terminal in Minnesota where the pipelines meet.

Crude oil for January delivery gained as much as $4.55 to $95.17 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the biggest gain since Oct. 31
According to a spokeswoman for Calgary-based Enbridge, all the lines are shut down until they can safely start up the system, they also mentioned at least one or two lines will be shut down for quite sometime.

Brent crude oil for January settlement climbed as much as $3.01, to $92.82 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Today's rally places a 7.7 percent slide in the first three days of the week, driven by signs that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is raising production and may increase output further.

Enbridge's pipelines typically feed 1.5 million barrels a day of crude to refineries including BP Plc's plant in Whiting, Indiana, and plants in the U.S.'s refining heartland on the Gulf Coast. The U.S. imported 10.3 million barrels a day last week.

The leak and explosion occurred at the No. 3 pipeline, which was undergoing maintenance, now we will have a session of SPECULATION.

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WorldWatch has noticed a clear indication that at least for today there is a decline in the crude price and once more SPECULATION is the driving force behind this news..this time the SPECULATION has worked in a downward trend ...both in London and New York prices fell as SPECULATION suggests that OPEC during next meeting in Abu Dhabi will increase production of the black gold...next OPEC meeting will be in Decenber 4th and 5th 2007.
Today at 9h34a.m Brent crude price for January was priced at 92,44$. West Texas Intermediate crude price for January was priced at 94,44$.
The real factor is that all these months of SPECULATION will no doubt lead to a slower economical growth in the U.S and in Europe, the petrol
consumption will decrease, people will travel less so fuel consumption will DECREASE.

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WorldWatch investigation has shown that more than a quarter of western Europe's thermal coal is shipped from Richards Bay, which reported total shipments of 66.5 million tons last year. Exports through October this year were 53.8 million tons, little changed from a year earlier.

November's volumes should total about 5.6 million tons, from 6.48 million tons a year earlier.

However Derailments of trains run by Spoornet, the state rail operator that delivers coal to the port, and bad weather have hampered shipments...

Turnover times for ships at the port have been slowed by equipment shortages at the government's National Port Authority.

A helicopter used to transfer pilots to ships was replaced in September this year after crashing in 2005. In the interim pilots have been transferred by boat, a process that can take four to six hours, instead of the 90 minutes to 2 hours by helicopter. The helicopter service is no longer operating at night. While Richards Bay is the world's biggest coal-export terminal, Australia's Newcastle port ships more of the fuel from two terminals. South Africa is the world's third-biggest thermal coal exporter after Australia and Indonesia.

WorldWatch received news of another world happening that will eventually affect certain coal importing countries mainly those that use coal for energy in power plants, South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal, the world's biggest coal-export facility, expects a 30-fold surge in sales to India this year, increasing prices for European power producers competing for supplies.

The terminal shipped 7.3 million metric tons to India in the first 10 months, compared with 300,000 tons for the whole of 2006. That may rise by another 2 million tons before the end of the year, Richards Bay coal prices have gained 72 percent this year.

Benchmark prices for thermal coal, used in power plants, have reached a record in Australia, South Africa and Europe in the last three weeks. Costs have risen because of shipping and rail bottlenecks as Asian customers compete for supplies with European utilities. Indian coal demand will exceed supply for the next five years.

South Africa's northeast coast,is the biggest single source of coal for European power plants.

Richards Bay, which has about 3.5 million tons of coal stockpiled at the moment, is owned by mining companies including BHP Billiton Ltd. and Anglo American Plc.
South Africa in this area will have a boom next year..so coal exports are also one of the fuels that serve to feed world the ever growing energy needs..

SPECULATION once more as always had a (positive ) effect on crude oil prices, all it took was for the U.S. Energy Department. to say crude oil inventories at the delivery point for the U.S. benchmark grade increased.. amid signs that a slowing U.S. economy may damp fuel consumption in the world's largest energy user.

So what will happen if a recession developed in the U.S...!

Crude oil for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $96.62 a barrel in electronic trading.

Brent crude oil for January settlement was at $94.29 a barrel, down 55 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. a Yesterday it reached $96.53, the highest since trading began in 1988, as the tumbling dollar made crude cheaper for foreign investors

If SPECULATION continues then the dollar will slide more, there's still enough momentum out there to finally make the push for $100 a barrel, getting to three figures before the year is out is all but inevitable, and many crude exporters are hoping for that.

The dollar touched $1.4874 per euro yersterday, the lowest since the 13-nation currency was started in 1999.
Crude supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York-traded West Texas Intermediate oil is stored, rose 1.14 million barrels to 14.6 million last week, the Energy Department report showed. Nationwide, stockpiles of crude oil fell 1.07 million barrels to 313.6 million, said the report, in my view the report was kind of a mixed bag.

So its up to us to force crude prices down, means and ways have to be found to counterbalance the ever present SPECULATION...

The Crude/dollar saga continues as oil rose above $99 a barrel for the first time as a slumping U.S. dollar increased demand for commodities at a time of declining heating oil inventories.

Reaching $100 oil will be a major psychological barrier,every week we draw inexorably closer to the twilight zone.. Northern Hemisphere winter.

Futures in New York rose to within 71 cents of $100 as the dollar fell once more on speculation that the U.S. Fed. will cut interest rates for a third time this year. U.S.

Crude oil for January delivery climbed to a record $99.29 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The highest close since trading began in 1983 was reached yersterday $98.03 a barrel,,

Brent crude oil for January reached $96.53 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest since trading started in 1988.

Oil has become a hedge for investors and the weaker U.S. dollar has contributed to the rise in gold and oil, oil demand typically peaks in the fourth quarter during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Also Royal Dutch Shell Plc speculated that a fire reduced output by more than 50 percent from a 155,000 barrel-a-day oil- sands plant in Alberta, potentially cutting shipments to the U.S.

The never ending saga goes on and every hour we receive news reports on the spiral drop of the dollar and the latest up-date is the dollar fell to a record low against the euro and Swiss franc on concern credit-market losses will slow economic growth.

Currencies in New Zealand, the U.K., Australia and Norway gained on speculation a group of six Arab nations will change their fixed exchange rates from the U.S. currency.

The dollar fell to $1.4805 per euro at 9:11 a.m. in New York, and touched $1.4814, the lowest since the 13-nation currency started trading in January 1999.
The dollar will decline to $1.50 per euro by the end of the year, according to our WorldWatch analyst.

The U.S. dollar also fell to 5.4017 Norwegian krone, which gained the most versus the 16 most-actively traded currencies.
The yen fell to 162.90 per euro as a rebound in global stocks encouraged investors to buy higher-yielding currencies funded by loans in Japan.

We are going to see further declines in the dollar.

As mentioned in previous posts the falling U.S. dollar's effect on oil revenues overshadowed Saudi Arabia's promises to fight global warming at this weekend's Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries summit in Riyadh, so now even the global warming will be affected by this situation.

Saudi Arabia had to fight off an attempt by Iran and Venezuela to get the group to discuss pricing oil in different currencies. Hosting the summit, King Abdullah committed $300 million to research climate change, while OPEC leaders pledged to cut emissions from oil and gas production.

The Ministers at the summit said the oil market was well-supplied and recent gains were due to speculation and beyond the group's control...so all this crude situation as alerted by our WorldWatch office has its roots in SPECULATION...The dollar's 10 percent decline this year, record oil prices above $90 a barrel, has SPECULATION has no limits ?...OPEC is in a price paralysis conundrum but we all require the stability of the oil market, this is essential to world economy.

Gulf Arab countries, most of whose currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar, will jointly consider a revaluation in December in a bid to combat inflation, Abdul Rahman al-Attiyah, the secretary general of the Gulf Cooperation Council said in Riyadh today. The council includes OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

The final declaration from OPEC's third heads of state summit reiterated the group's commitment to ensuring stable energy supplies and promise to reduce carbon emissions from oil and gas production.

OPEC energy ministers have their next meeting to discuss oil production in Abu Dhabi on Dec. 5.

OPEC supplies more than 40 percent of the world's oil, is gaining influence on the back of high prices. Importing nations have transferred $3 trillion more to OPEC than they would have since 2001 had oil prices stayed near $20 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

So now Ecuador will re-join Dec. 5 as the group's 13th member. The South American nation left the organization 15 years ago.

Well folks if you thinking of visiting this beautifull land remember one think and that is here in Portugal we have one of the most expensive consumer prices for petrol in the world while next door in Spain the same product is +/- 25 cents per litre cheaper, these past three weeks GALP,BP ,Repsol increased consumer prices five cents per litre, how can the Government control inflation by allowing these petrol companies to practice the same prices all the time... one increases the others follow.. EU hates any monopolistic activity that affects EU citizens, so why don't these companies suffer some kind of sanctions?...why must the citizens of Portugal always be the ones to pay, we pay so many taxes, actually we pay taxes on taxes...

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Well the dollar crises goes on as Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter come out in defense of the dollar as it rejected a proposal by Iran and Venezuela to discuss the weak dollar at this weekend's OPEC summit in Riyadh, saying it didn't want the U.S. currency to ``collapse.''
Saudi Arabia won't discuss pricing oil in currencies other than the dollar, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal said, this news was accidentally broadcast to journalists during the meeting of oil and finance ministers today.

The world has been watching the dollar and crude dance since it started we have noticed the sensibility of the markets also how fragile the crude situation is, any little happening anywhere in the world has a negative reaction on the price... In some countries this negative reaction is transported to the economy ... this is very evident on the economy and population of one particular European nation Portugal...Here we have one of the most expensive consumer prices for petrol in the world while next door in Spain the same product is +/- 25 cents per litre cheaper, these past three weeks GALP,BP ,Repsol increased consumer prices five cents per litre, how can the Government control inflation by allowing these petrol companies to practice the same prices all the time... one increases the others follow.. EU hates any monopolistic activity that affects EU citizens, so why don't these companies suffer some kind of sanctions?...why must the citizens of Portugal always be the ones to pay, we pay so many taxes that its impossible to mention all.

Consumer prices in the U.S. and in most European countries rose in October, reflecting increases in fuel costs that threaten to boost inflation and slow growth.

Gasoline and heating-oil prices started rising in late October and have continued higher this month, here in Porugal the final consumer price at the petrol pump is now 5 cents more expensive suggesting fuel costs will remain a concern and will no doubt inflict on spending and investment.
The dollar traded at $1.4628 against the euro today at 6:43 a.m. in New York, rising from $1.4651 yesterday.

Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange averaged $85.26 a barrel in October, up from $79.63 in September, and rose to a record $98.62 on Nov. 7.
The cost of fuel is prompting some businesses to increase prices. Airlines have raised fares seven times since Sept. 1, some carriers last week added a $10 round-trip fuel surcharge to ticket prices. Since fuel prices affect airlines across the board, consumers should expect prices to continue to increase.

Still, the impact of rising energy costs on other prices has so far been limited. Competition for business in a slowing economy is helping keep a lid on inflation.

But the bad news for the local market is the announcement that rice ,sugar petrol,wheat and other derivates will in some cases have a 50% INCREASE IN THE CONSUMER PRICE...

According to information received in our WorldWatch office between 100,000 and 300,000 barrels a day of Iraq’s declared oil production over the past four years is unaccounted for and could have been siphoned off through corruption or smuggling.

Using an average of $70 a barrel, the report said the discrepancy was valued at $7 million to $17 million daily.

The report does not give a final conclusion on what happened to the missing fraction of the roughly two million barrels pumped by Iraq each day, but the findings are sure to reinforce longstanding suspicions that smugglers, insurgents and corrupt officials control significant parts of the country’s oil industry.
The report also covered alternative explanations for the billions of dollars worth of discrepancies, including the possibility that Iraq has been consistently overstating its oil production.

So this all helps to place pressure on world supply ... and sure no one wants to control this situation... 100,000 to 300,000 barrels a day!!!

Crude Oil Decline as signs of slowing growth in the U.S. economy and some European nations dented investor confidence that prices will reach $100 a barrel.
The world's largest oil user slowed retail spending growth, to a four-month low in October, according to WorldWatch survey. Oil imports in China, where fuel taxes will be introduced this year, fell last month to their lowest since February.

Crude oil for December delivery declined to $94.86 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile
Exchange.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the producer of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, has no plan to discuss raising production targets at its heads of state summit in Riyadh on Nov. 17-18, Iran's OPEC governor and a Persian Gulf oil official said.
The group will only review production quotas as its next ministerial-level meeting on Dec. 5 in Abu Dhabi, but perhaps this will change and new production increase will be on the agenda...

Whether we get to $100 is all psychology,as mentioned before there's nothing fundamental that changed between September and November to get us to $95., the only explanation is SPECULATION...

Crude keeps going up, Blame the dollar the weather the Middle East the Iran USA nuke situation the Turkey Kurdish affair blame anything but the real cause is SPECULATION... crude oil rose above $98 a barrel for the first time in New York as the dollar tumbled to a record low against the euro and producers evacuated platforms in the North Sea, evading a storm forecast to bring waves as high as 36 feet.

BP Plc and ConocoPhillips evacuated oilrig workers, adding to supply concerns before a U.S. Energy Department report that show inventories fell for a third week.

One-hundred-dollar oil is the big benchmark and the factors ( speculation) driving crude towards that are in force.The supply disruption in the North Sea has given further impetus'' to prices.

Crude oil for December delivery rose to $98.17 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since trading began in 1983. It was at $98.16 at 4:12 p.m. in Singapore.

Yesterday, oil rose $2.72, or 2.9 percent, to settle at $96.70 a barrel, a record close, Prices have passed the previous all-time inflation- adjusted record reached in 1981

The weakness in the dollar is giving investors the chance to buy oil at a cheaper price....Gold reached a 27-year high and silver rose to the most in 26 years as rising oil prices and a slumping dollar deepened concern that inflation will accelerate.

High oil prices are a concern for Europe as they drive up production prices and in some states this will be dramatic. This will also have a effect in the car industry as carmakers will increase sales of compact models or Smaller Cars .

For carmakers to grow out of the dependence on fossil fuels they need to achieve improved fuel efficiency, this and other energy sources should be the priority of any Goverment..not creating regional conflicts...

The never ending saga of the dollar like the crude price has its causes and effects in anything and everything the real cause for both cases is SPECULATION pure and simple... the dollar continues on a downward trend and has now slumped to a record low against the euro after Chinese officials signaled plans to diversify the nation's $1.43 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves in response to a falling U.S. currency.
The Chinese will favor stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly...The dollar fell against all 16 of the most-active currencies, and if this goes on as further pressure is applied on the dollar them most likely THE DOLLAR WILL LOOSE ITS STATUS AS THE WORLD CURRENCY...

The U.S. currency slumped to $1.4666 per euro, the lowest since the 13-nation currency debuted in January 1999...The dollar fell to an all-time low against the synthetic euro, a theoretical value that estimates where the currency would have traded before its inception. The prior record was $1.4557 set in 1992.
According to our WorldWatch analyst the U.S. currency may fall to $1.50 against the euro...

Our WorldWatch office received a news flash informing that crude oil rose to a record today as a storm approaches North Sea Platforms with 36-foot waves BP Plc and ConocoPhillips evacuate workers and cut production. This will probably cause crude-oil inventories to fall around 1.6 million barrels.

Normally a disruption in the North Sea might not have so much impact, but with jitters about Iran, Turkey and another forecast decline in crude inventories, you can see why the market's is so irregular.

Crude oil for December delivery rose to $95.89 barrel at 9:50 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures climbed to $96.44 today, the highest intraday price since trading began in 1983. Prices according to last year are up 60 percent.

Brent crude oil for December rose to $92.44 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent reached $92.74 a barrel, the highest since trading began in 1988.
As we informed before chances are that we'll reach $100 per barril but lets hope we won't stay there long. Prices should also come down because the Saudis are cutting prices to key customers.

So.Buracos WorldWatch analyst has verified that PetroChina Co. trading in Shanghai, have become the world's first company to be valued at $1 trillion, larger than the entire Russian stock market.

PetroChina state-owned oil producer has now a greater market value than Exxon Mobil Corp. and General Electric Co. combined.

This makes PetroChina shares four times more expensive than those of Exxon, even though China's biggest oil producer has a quarter of the revenue. China's stock market was valued at less than $1.1 trillion before tripling this year and giving the communist nation five of the world's 10 biggest companies. The oil producer's Shanghai listing pushes China's stock market beyond the U.K. as the world's third-largest. PetroChina trades at 55 times earnings, four times Exxon's ratio of 13 times earnings and near the 58 times for Google Inc., the world's most-used Internet search engine.

In the New York Stock Exchange Exxon is worth $488 billion..

China's largest oil and gas producer had 20.5 billion barrels of oil and gas reserves in 2006, compared with 22.1 billion for Irving, Texas-based Exxon, PetroChina has been adding new reserves at an average annual rate of 5 percent for the past three years, a faster pace than Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, the world's largest oil companies by sales.

The other Chinese companies that rank among the world's 10 largest by market value are China Petroleum, known as Sinopec, China Mobile Ltd., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp.

Perhaps Europe and the rest of the world should have a look at this situation, learn and investigate...its time the West "copied " Chinese ideas....

The world and all who live in this ever changing planet need to adapt to the changes that daily are forced upon humans...
The most critical is in fact the continues attack to the environment...causing serious climate change that in turn forces all living
organisms to adapt or disappear.
Fossil fuels are one of the most poluting that exists but at the same time are the most used, such as crude...
So all year long we face a never ending story...Crude prices keep going us.
So the time to act is now, the car manufactures and oil companies should find a alternative energy for crude...very fast....time is running out...

The saga continues while the world watches and waits as crude oil rose in New York, reversing yesterday's decline from a record and resuming a trend toward $100 a barrel.

Oil producers, including the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, are powerless to stop prices from reaching $100 as few countries can produce more crude, Oman's energy minister said yesterday. Prices soared 17 percent the past month as U.S. stockpiles fell, the dollar weakened and Iran threatened to curb supplies in a standoff over nuclear research.

Brent crude oil for December settlement yesterday declined 91 cents, or 1 percent, to $89.72 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent reached $91.71 a barrel earlier in the day, the highest since trading began in 1988.

According to our WorldWatch group all oil-producing countries are at maximum output. Maybe Saudi could produce more, but the lack of spare capacity is a major factor …

Almost every day the dollar hits another record low against a basket of currencies no matter what the currency is.

The other critical factor is the Turkey Kurdish affair...with the world in the middle like a ping pong ball..This conflict has sparked worries of supply disruptions from northern Iraq and heightened fears of wider regional fallout if Turkey follows through with threats to launch attacks inside northern Iraq if necessary.Also The abduction of foreign oil workers in Nigeria on Friday that forced ENI unit Saipem and SBM Offshore to cut production by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) also reignited fears of tighter winter supplies. Attacks by militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) had already cut Nigerian output by a fifth since early last year and forced thousands of foreigners to flee the vast wetlands region in southern Nigeria.

Despite the surge in oil prices, OPEC has shrugged off calls from importer nations to raise output, saying politics and speculation -- not a supply shortfall -- are to blame for the current situation...

With the actual rock and roll situation of the international crude situation, were almost every day we see new
record prices, its not suprising that the local market and oil companies have started to silently increase the final consumer
price... a upward trend has been going on for well over two weeks.
The key statistic in the crude oil market is world surplus production capacity and that has improved from 1.0 million barrels per day in 2005 to an estimate of 2.0 million barrels per day in September of 2007, but that is still relatively tight and the politics of the Middle East and Turkey remain tense - especially with Iran. Roughly 20% of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran has the ability to block the channel. And world oil demand continues to grow.

On September 11, 2007, OPEC met and decided to increase its current production levels by 500,000 barrels per day, beginning November 1st. On October 9, 2007, the DOE estimated OPEC's actual production at 30.8 million barrels per day in September with 2.2 million barrels coming daily from Iraq. That was up from 30.2 million barrels per day in August. The DOE also estimated that world oil consumption will total 85.8 million barrels per day in 2007 and exceed production by 1.1 million barrels per day.