03/03/2009

OPEC CRASH !!!

Crude oil fell more than $4 a barrel, the biggest decline in seven weeks, on signs that the recession in the world’s major energy-consuming countries are deepening and will continue to deepen if the OPEC group continue to force crude prices up...
This global recession was mostly caused by the same group OPEC who last year forced crude prices to reach a staggering $147 per barril.
This week oil dropped 10 percent as the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped below 7,000 for the first time after Warren Buffett said the economy is in “shambles” and insurer American International Group Inc. reported a $61.7 billion loss. manufacturing output in February shrank for a 13th consecutive month. Until the bad economic news abates, we are going to primarily move on demand concerns, at this point there are no signs pointing to when this crisis will come to an end. Crude oil for April delivery fell $4.61 to settle at $40.15 a barrel at 2:49 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest one-day drop since Jan. 7.
Prices are down 10 percent so far this year. Brent crude oil for April settlement declined $4.14, or 8.9 percent, to end the session at $42.21 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe exchange. The discount of oil in to the Brent grade in widened to $2.06 a barrel. That’s still down from $10.67 on Feb. 12. Therre has recently been a close correlation between the stock and energy markets, the Dow has become an indicator for where the economy is going. According to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets Manufacturing also contracted last month. The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 45.1 from 42.2 in January.The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said in a report U.K. manufacturing shrank for a 10th month. Commodities had the biggest drop since October as the deepening global recession slashed demand. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials fell 11.23, or 5.3 percent, to 200.34, the biggest decline since Oct. 10. The 6.6 percent decrease on that date was the largest since the debut of the index in 1956.
Oil also declined as the dollar strengthened to the highest level since April 2006 against the currencies of six major trading partners, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. The Dollar Index, which the ICE exchange uses to track the currency versus the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, climbed to 88.969. Officials from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the supplier of 40 percent of the world’s oil, gave conflicting signals on their intentions to cut output further when they meet in on March 15.
The group “will likely” reduce supplies to support prices, Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said in an interview in today. Yesterday,Iran oil minister said OPEC is unlikely to lower crude production when it meets, this will cause global recession to worsen and crude demand will continue to decline. OPEC members have reached almost 100 percent compliance with existing cuts at the end of February, Khelil said. The group has implemented as much as 80 percent of previously announced supply cuts, preventing a sharp fall in the oil price, Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said in comments posted yesterday on the Web site of state-run Iranian Students News Agency.
This attitude by OPEC members will cause a "crash" to the balance between production and demand, prices will not rise above $40 per barrel and the cartel will be at risk in collapsing.

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