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Crude Oil Forecasts

The fastest-growing concern for the everyday user of the automobile is the international market crude price .... now that the barrel has reached the $100 mark ...oil producers and companies,investors and so on will no doubt want to keep the price as high as they are, for that purpose they will use SPECULATION as the driving force ...
We can already witness S P E C U L A T I O N at its best as options to buy oil for $200 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10-fold in the past two months !!!

The contracts, the cheapest way to speculate in energy markets, appreciated 36 percent since early December as crude futures reached a record $100.09 on Jan. 3.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, said last week that the 500,000 barrel-a-day Khursaniyah oilfield missed a December start date !!!

Brazil's Tupi field, the second-largest find of the past two decades, lies more than eight kilometers (five miles) below the ocean surface and will take at least five years to develop. !!!
Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state oil monopoly, suffered a three-year, 40 percent decline at its Cantarell field, the world's third-largest !!!

Fighting in Nigeria reduced production 11 percent since December 2005 !!!
According to OPEC, there is enough oil in the market rising prices aren't OPEC's fault. The group is scheduled to meet Feb. 1.

Even the assessment from OPEC suggests prices will rise ... they also use SPECULATION as the driving force !!!

However all this SPECULATION will prove to be useless as Oil is overpriced and the U.S. economy, the world's largest, will slip into recession this year. The jobless rate rose to 5 percent in December, the highest in two years. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to the lowest level in almost five years in December.
Lets all do what we can to force the crude prices down, be it in Europe,America,Asia or downunder we all face the same situation ...Oil is overpriced and we pay the bill ....

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A True Story

How strange these real happenings are...the US Department of Energy (DOE) "Annual Energy Outlook, 2007" was for crude oil prices to be around $57 per barrel and as you know we closed 2007 at over $95, so needless to say, the DOE was way off the mark on that one.Being unable to predict oil prices is disappointing, to say the least, when you employ 16,000 federal employees to do just that and are funded with $23.4 billion of taxpayer money .
Shows how useless some Government institutions are...makes one wonder why SPECULATION exists..

PORTUGAL

In Portugal we have one of the most expensive ( petrol/gas) final consumer price per litre in the world , here the word S P E C U L A T I O N rules, governments , and oil companies use daily to manipulate prices ... always in a upward trend.
For every litre of fuel a the petrol pump we pay 1,386€ ( REF. 95 octane ) 75% of the price is taxes ... ridicules but real... Every week we face a increase in the consumer price, no explanation is given, there is a total lack of respect between the government, oil companies and the population in general...,

The dollar's 11 percent slide last year against the euro helped boost oil prices because it made commodities cheaper for buyers outside the U.S, but in Portugal this is not the case...in fact the reverse has happened... prices have continued to go up...

The national company ( GALP ) is the major culprit in this situation, they are always the first to increase the price followed by the others, namelly BP,Repsol,SHELL and so on.. all these practice the same price.

How can the Government expect to control inflation by allowing these petrol companies to practice the same prices all the time... one increases the others follow.. EU hates any monopolistic activity that affects EU citizens, so why don't these companies suffer some kind of sanctions?..

Portugal will certainly end up in a recession this year if the petrol prices at the pumps continue as they are ... actually the recession has started since all energy , food, transports, health, in fact everything has increased beginning of 2008, the only workers that will continue to have reasonable wages are the state workers ( public servants ) all others face uncertainty or unemployment...

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Oil, Gold Near Records

The actual crude situation is like a huge bubble ready to burst... when this happens we will have reached the turning point were SPECULATION will no longer be the effective instrument that certain governments , analysts, car manufactures , oil producers and oil companies use daily to manipulate prices.
Global inflationary pressures will worsen as energy and food costs keep rising ... We will eventually end up in a recession ...
WorldWatch received a news flash confirming that crude oil and gold traded near records after a slump in the dollar against major currencies boosted the appeal of raw materials as an inflation hedge.
Oil reached a record $100 a barrel yesterday and gold soared to its highest ever. The dollar fell as traders increased the odds of a U.S Federal Reserve cut in borrowing costs this month to 100 percent. Gold gained to a record $860.10 an ounce yesterday.
Consumption is rising in China and India, the world's biggest buyers of the commodity, and governments are promoting increased use of edible oils as alternative fuels.

Also affecting the oil prices is the violence in Nigeria ... may extend output cuts in Africa's biggest oil producer. Nigerian militants killed 12 people in the southern oil city of Port Harcourt on Jan. 1. Unrest has curbed daily production by almost a quarter...Geopolitical uncertainty including violence in the Middle East, Pakistan as well as Nigeria , WHY DOES THIS AFFECT CRUDE PRICES...!! How many people die per day in Nigeria , in Africa ... this never affected prices.... now it does...why ??? BLAME SPECULATION...

Crude oil for February delivery traded at $99.49 a barrel, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:29 p.m. in Singapore.

The dollar's 11 percent slide last year against the euro helped boost oil prices because it made commodities cheaper for buyers outside the U.S. and attracted investors seeking a hedge against inflation. The priority for this year is to eradicate SPECULATION from the face of the earth...but we must all stand together...the stronger we get the more successful we will be, after all its the final consumer that bears the grunt of the inflated crude prices.
Its up to the consumer in our respective countries to pressure governments ,car manufactures , oil producers and oil companies, let them now that this situation has reached the turning point... ONE FOR ALL, ALL FOR ONE...

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YEAR 2008

As the year 2008 begins there is no positive news regarding the crude price ...SPECULATION continues to dominate events as crude oil rose above $98 a barrel in New York on speculation U.S. stockpiles fell for a seventh week...why should this news affect crude prices...every week U.S. stockpiles decline .. even when they dont decline prices keep going up.
According to our WorldWatch office a U.S. government report tomorrow will show a drop in crude supplies last week, from their lowest in three years !!!!
Gold futures for February delivery rose $11.60, or 1.4 percent, to $849.60 an ounce at 9:01 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil also gained after militant attacks in Nigeria, Africa's biggest crude producer, increased concern that violence will deepen production cuts. Violence has already cut production by about 500,000 barrels a day. There have always been conflicts in Nigeria, almost every African Nation has conflicts...so why should the price of crude suffer !!! just because Nigeria produces crude !!! anyway who controls the local crude market...U.S companies !!!

What the world needs is efficient energy source other than crude... there are many options but more investment is needed.

Crude oil for February delivery climbed to $98.29 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $97.82 at 1:42 p.m. London time.

Last year, prices surged $34.93 a barrel, or 57 percent, the biggest annual percentage increase since 2002. New York futures reached a record $99.29 on Nov. 21 as a weaker dollar made crude cheaper in other currencies.

Brent crude for February settlement rose to $96.40 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. It traded at $96.06 at 1:18 p.m. London time.

The London benchmark rose 54 percent last year, the most since 1999, when prices more than doubled.

Oil advanced 2.9 percent in New York last week after the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto sparked concerns of instability in the nuclear-armed nation.
Also having a effect on crude prices is Nigerian militants killed 12 people in the southern oil city of Port Harcourt in attacks on two police stations and a hotel, the state-run News Agency of Nigeria said yesterday, citing Felix Ogbaudu, the regional police chief, reducingNigeria's output by 20 percent since the start of 2006.
Gold rose, extending a seven-year rally to the highest price since 1980, as a weakening dollar and higher energy costs boosted demand for a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained.V

So its up to the consumer to turn this situation in a downward trend... because we have noticed that crude is making a run for a $100, the dollar is headed lower, and geopolitical tensions are building. It's very possible gold can get to $1,000 this year.!!!